Two recent Asia-Pacific agreements for the Airbus A350 freighter have reinforced Airbus’s confidence in the aircraft’s long-term prospects, despite the substantial turmoil endured by global trade in a year which has virtually been defined by escalating tariffs, retaliation, and geopolitical tension.

Korean Air and Air China Cargo have newly disclosed plans to sign up for the A350F, respectively aiming to take seven and six firm aircraft. If confirmed they would bring to five the number of Asia-Pacific customers, alongside Cathay Pacific, Singapore Airlines and Starlux.

The airframer has commenced final assembly of MSN700, the first of two A350F test aircraft, after the primary structural components – fuselage sections, wings, and the empennage – were shipped to Toulouse at the end of summer. Its second, MSN701, is due to enter the line before the year-end.

Airbus aims to begin test flights in 2026, intending a “light” campaign, says head of freighter marketing Crawford Hamilton, adding that the A350F is still scheduled for entry into service in the second half of 2027.

Hamilton reaffirmed the timeline as Airbus highlighted its revived interest in the cargo sector by unveiling its first dedicated freighter forecast in recent history, during an October event in Nashville.

Cargo has become a “really strategically important topic” for the manufacturer, states global market forecast head Francois Cabaret. While air cargo accounts for just 0.8% of world trade volume, its value share is more than 30%.

The airframer has wrestled to secure a cargo aircraft footing since ending A300 freighter production. Its most recent new-build, the A330-200F, attracted only meagre interest and the A380F, with just a handful of orders, never progressed far beyond artistic impressions.

Although it has become active in single-aisle and widebody conversion programmes, through its EFW joint venture, Airbus has coveted a successful new-build widebody freighter to challenge Boeing’s monopoly.

It embarked on the A350F programme at a time when the Covid-19 pandemic was demonstrating the vital role of freighters in maintaining economic links and transporting medical supplies.

The pandemic-driven cargo surge has subsided, and US trade policies have interrupted the growth in GDP. IATA predicted in June a substantial slowdown in air cargo growth this year, to just 0.7%.

Air cargo is typically “more volatile” than the passenger market, says Cabaret. Crises tend to have a deeper and earlier impact on cargo – the pandemic, during which cargo bounced back quickly from an initial dip, proved to be an exception.

Airbus’s 20-year freighter forecast points out that the financial crisis of 2008 has had a long-term effect on world real trade – which has a strong correlation with air cargo – moderating growth from previous projections, and triggering a contraction in the global freighter fleet.

In the aftermath of the financial crisis, freighter aircraft retirements increased significantly to between 100-150 aircraft per year.

The fleet took a decade to recover to 2008 levels, says Cabaret, and “only in the last few years” have the retirements fallen back and helped the fleet to expand to its current level of 2,345 aircraft.

Cargo aircraft retirements dropped to “almost zero” during the pandemic, he adds, while annual conversion of passenger models to freighters reached “record levels” – some 150 aircraft or more – over the same period.

“Some very young aircraft were converted,” says Cabaret, with some less than 10 years old compared with the typical conversion age of 15-20 years. “Beforehand, almost none, because of the high demand for passenger aircraft.”

Conversions have fallen since 2024, he adds, stating that availability of suitable feedstock has become a constraint on activity.

Cabaret says that, as a result of the delayed freighter retirements, the industry is “in a situation where the fleet is statistically much older than five years ago”.

He states that the airframer is expecting a “peak” in retirements over the next decade as these older models are phased out, and the freighter forecast has been drawn up taking this into account.

Airbus is predicting that, over the next two decades, the freighter fleet will rise by 45% to 3,420 aircraft in 2044.

This will require just over 2,600 aircraft to be supplied to cargo carriers – up from the figure of 2,470 in last year’s outlook.

While some 1,530 aircraft will be used to replace retired airframes, more than 1,000 more will be needed to expand capacity.

Among the total deliveries will be 630 large widebodies, with capacities of more than 80t, along with 855 midsize widebodies in the 40-80t sector. The rest, more than 1,100 aircraft, will be single-aisle models.

Conversions will account for the majority of supplied aircraft, and are the reason for the overall increase in the 20-year delivery forecast. Airbus expects 935 new-build freighter deliveries over the period, a figure essentially unchanged since the previous outlook.

Cabaret says Airbus’s forecast uses a “historical ratio” to determine the split between new-build and converted aircraft. He says large freighter demand typically comprises 80% new-build models and 20% conversion, while the split for midsize freighters is more balanced. Single-aisle freighters are almost entirely supplied through conversion.

North America and the Asia-Pacific regions will absorb the largest part of the overall 2,600-aircraft supply – nearly 1,800 airframes between them.

But while the composition of aircraft sizes for North America will be evenly split, Airbus expects single-aisle freighters to make up more than half of the Asia demand.

Asia-North America and Asia-Europe traffic flows will maintain their dominance, according to the Airbus forecast. But intra-Asia flows will be among those with the strongest average growth over the next 20 years.

Cabaret points out that a number of Asian nations – such as Vietnam, Indonesia, India and the Philippines – are growing faster than China. These developing Asian industrial economies will result in diversification of air cargo flows.

“Vietnam is going to develop very quickly,” says Cabaret. “Asia won’t just be China.”

Airbus aims to offer a range of freighter capabilities to meet the global demand.

“It was realised a while ago that we really need to build a family [of freighters],” says Hamilton, adding that conversions have enabled the A320 and A321, as well as the A330-200 and -300, to enter the cargo sector.

But Hamilton adds that customers asked the airframer for a new-build freighter to serve as a replacement for older models. “We wanted to approach the final frontier, get into the large freighter market,” he says.

Boeing delivered its final 747, a -8F variant, nearly three years ago. But it continues to produce the 777F – the 300^th was delivered this year – and is developing a -8F cargo version.

Airbus’s A350F has entered final assembly with the backing of 65 firm orders, with another pair to be confirmed.

While the airframer has lost its launch customer, Air Lease, and Air France-KLM Group has cut back its commitment, Hamilton says the A350F has a “good demographic” of customers – among them Cathay Pacific, Singapore Airlines, Etihad Airways and Turkish Airlines, as well as the Saudi lessor AviLease.

The strong Asian commitment has been reinforced by the recent Korean Air and Air China Cargo agreements.

Hamilton believes the A350F will benefit from the “proven platform” of the passenger variants. “Everything on this aircraft has been well-tested in the real world,” he says.

Intended to offer a payload capability of 111t and 4,700nm range, the A350F will have a heavy-duty cargo-loading system and an aft main door able to accommodate loading of large engines.

Hamilton says that, with the airframe assembly underway, the airframer is concentrating on ground testing. Over 30 test rigs have been set up, mainly in Hamburg and Bremen.

“We really are test, test, test,” Hamilton says, adding that the rigs include a centre section to analyse the cargo-loading system, while full-scale configurable dummy engines will be used to verify capabilities. Power-on has been achieved, he says, and electrical systems testing has commenced.

“[It’s a] big investment on our part to make sure we have the level of maturity at [service entry],” he adds.

While pressures on the supply chain, notably with A350 centre fuselage supplier Spirit AeroSystems, have resulted in this entry into service being pushed back to the second half of 2027, Hamilton insists the airframer has a “high level of confidence” in the industrial plan and it “should maintain” the schedule.

“The more risky items that were out there are getting solved now – Spirit and suchlike,” he says, referring to Airbus’s planned acquisition and integration of the Spirit A350 work.

He adds that Rolls-Royce’s improved Trent XWB-97 engine, offering greater durability, particularly for Middle Eastern operations, should be nearing readiness around the time the A350F emerges in the market.

Once the test aircraft have completed the certification programme, French logistics firm CMA CGM’s air cargo division is set to be the first operator of the A350F.

But the A350F will not only face competition in the large-freighter sector from new-build 777s. Both the 777-200ER and the 777-300ER have been the subject of several conversion initiatives to have blossomed since 2021.

Israel Aerospace Industries has already secured US FAA and Israeli certification for its 777-300ERSF, a programme initiated with GECAS before the lessor merged with AerCap. US freighter operator Kalitta Air has taken delivery of the first couple of aircraft.

Several other operators – Challenge Group, Emirates and EVA Air – have indicated plans to take the 777-300ERSF.

Two US-based firms are also progressing with 777 freighter conversion plans. Mammoth Freighters, which picked up several former Delta Air Lines 777-200ERs as feedstock, has claimed Qatar Airways as a launch operator of its 777-200ERMF. The company, which modifies 777s with partners in Texas and the UK, is also working on a 777-300ERMF conversion programme.

Kansas Modification Center, located in Wichita, has been working on a 777-300ERCF conversion. The company is looking to obtain FAA certification late next year.

Unlike the IAI and Mammoth designs for the twinjet, Kansas Modification Center plans to fit a forward cargo door. It argues that an aft door requires fuselage changes which increase empty weight and reduce revenue payload.

Airbus’s Hamilton acknowledges the additional competition, but says new-build aircraft offer strong advantages, including “better payload-range” while ownership costs are “diluted by high utilisation”.