The UK government’s commitment ­earlier this year to significantly boost defence spending over the coming decade will make mid-­September’s DSEI exhibition in London particularly vibrant.

Published on 2 June, the Strategic Defence Review (SDR) document laid out the Ministry of Defence’s (MoD’s) ‘direction of travel’, but left many of the ­precise details for a later defence investment plan.

The results of that process will be made public in the last quarter of this year, according to ­current ­indications, but clear hints already exist about ­probable spending activities.

As one example of this, the post-SDR ­announcement that London’s next batch order for the ­Lockheed ­Martin F-35 will include its first ­conventional ­take-off and landing (CTOL) A-models is expected to be ­confirmed.

The UK currently operates the short take-off and vertical landing (STOVL) F-35B, with 48 ordered to date, but its next, 27-unit commitment to the stealth fighter programme will be adjusted to 15 of that ­version and a dozen As.

Introducing the CTOL model will enable the UK to restore its support for NATO’s dual-capable aircraft mission, through the ability to carry US-supplied B61N nuclear weapons. The Royal Air Force (RAF) has lacked an air-launched nuclear weapon since the retirement of its last WE177 free-fall bombs in 1998. UK capability in this area has since been provided by the Royal Navy’s Trident missile-armed Vanguard-class submarines.

VARIANT SWITCH

The F-35 acquisition switch also is expected to boost the nation’s operational effectiveness with its STOVL jets, with the new version to be employed day-to-day in a training role.

“I would expect those F-35As to start being ­delivered before the end of the decade,” defence secretary John Healey told the House of Commons Defence Committee on 2 July.

While noting that the UK is “still in early negotiations with industry” around the A-model switch, minister of state Lord Coaker says the jets are expected to cost about 20% less than STOVL equivalents.

The F-35As will be based at Marham in Norfolk and assigned to the RAF’s 207 Sqn operational ­conversion unit.

It is not known if the investment plan will address future planned purchases of the Lockheed type against the UK’s long-held programme of record total. However, as of today “We have done nothing to that ultimate 138 figure”, Healey has stated.

Notably, the RAF lacks the ability to conduct in-flight refuelling of the F-35A, with its Airbus Defence & Space A330 Voyager multi-role tanker transports not equipped with booms. Instead, the F-35B is refuelled via the use of under-wing hose and drogue pods.

They also will not be the first F-35As to be based in the UK, with the US Air Force (USAF) already ­having deployed examples to its facility at RAF Lakenheath in Suffolk – only a short distance from the host ­nation’s Marham site.

Another expected major UK procurement remains in limbo ahead of the investment plan, meanwhile.

There had been speculation in mid-July that ­Leonardo Helicopters’ AW149 would be confirmed as the winner of the MoD’s New Medium Helicopter (NMH) contest to replace the RAF’s already-retired Puma HC2 transports.

The aircraft – which did not make an ­appearance at the Royal International Air ­Tattoo (RIAT) in July – was left as the last contender for NMH after rivals Airbus Helicopters (offering its H175M) and ­Lockheed Martin UK (pitching the ­Sikorsky S-70M Black Hawk) withdrew their interest shortly before formal bids were due to be submitted on 30 ­August 2024.

Leonardo in late April delivered a best and final ­offer to the MoD for the requirement, which it ­describes as representing “value for money in ­sustaining British jobs, skills, innovation and growth”.

If advanced to contract award, the deal will see production of an undisclosed number of rotorcraft occur at the company’s Yeovil site in Somerset, ­southwest England.

The NMH programme was originally pegged at a 44-aircraft need, but industry sources indicated during the competitive phase that the eventual fleet could total only 23-32 airframes.

EARLY WARNING

The SDR also hinted strongly that the UK’s airborne early warning and control credentials will be restored and strengthened via an increased buy of Boeing 737NG-based E-7A Wedgetail aircraft.

A first of three on-order examples for the RAF made its public debut in the flying display at the RIAT show at Fairford in Gloucestershire on 19 July. It performed a flypast flanked by the service’s Red Arrows aerobatic display team, before making a solo pass and then conducting a touch and go landing.

First flown in modified guise in September 2024, the adapted narrowbody – registration WT001 – was making only its fifth flight in the Wedgetail AEW1 configuration, with Boeing and RAF test pilots at the controls.

Shortly after the show, it was flown to the MoD’s Boscombe Down site in Wiltshire, to advance a ­flight-test campaign.

Service entry is due to be achieved during 2026 with the incoming type, which will succeed the RAF’s already-retired Boeing E-3D Sentry fleet.

Two other examples have already had their Northrop Grumman MESA surveillance radars ­installed by conversion partner STS Aviation Services at its Birmingham airport site.

Originally due to have delivered a five-strong fleet to replace the E-3D, the UK’s Wedgetail ­acquisition was subsequently reduced to three examples. ­However, in the SDR, London expressed a desire to procure additional examples, potentially via “cost-sharing with NATO allies”.

Notably, the UK’s initial commitment spanned the procurement of radars and mission equipment for all five of the aircraft that were originally planned, which would narrow down a commitment to restoring that fleet size at least to sourcing ­airframes only, plus modifications.

Once delivered for operational use, the RAF’s ­Wedgetails will be flown from its Lossiemouth base in Scotland – already home to a nine-strong fleet of 737NG-derived P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft.

And in what will be one of the UK’s highest-­profile procurement activities, the MoD also must soon launch a process that will lead to the selection of a replacement for its BAE Systems-built Hawk T2 ­advanced jet trainers, along with the veteran T1-­model Hawks used by the Red Arrows.

Speaking during a second-quarter earnings call on 30 July, BAE chief executive Charles Woodburn declined to discuss the company’s potential future advanced jet trainer (AJT) pitch to the UK.

Commenting shortly after media reports suggested that BAE has been in discussion around a possible joint venture (JV) with Boeing and Saab on the T-7A Red Hawk, he said: “On the JV, there is no point in me adding to any speculation, apart from to say that training is a very important part of our overall portfolio, and particularly as it pertains to the air sector.”

Already on order for the USAF, the T-7A is among a host of potential candidates for a ­prospective UK programme. Others include the ­Leonardo M-346, Lockheed/Korea Aerospace ­Industries T-50, and Turkish Aerospace Hurjet.

A proposed new model also is being pitched by start-up developer Aeralis, which in early July pledged to establish a final assembly line for its ­modular jet at Glasgow Prestwick airport. The ­company has projected a possible need for the UK to acquire up to 50 new trainers, to deliver pilot ­instruction, adversary training – or ‘Red Air’ – ­services, and for aerobatic display use.

FUTURE REQUIREMENTS

Acquired to deliver part of the UK’s tri-service ­Military Flying Training System (MFTS) programme, the Hawk T2 fleet has struggled from poor availability, and the RAF has identified a training gap between the type’s capabilities and future requirements.

Early project definition work on an ‘MFTS 2.0’ ­system and future AJT capability is already under way, with the MoD’s current 25-year arrangement with industry due to end in 2033.

Meanwhile, visitors to the DSEI event – taking place at London’s Excel exhibition centre from 9-12 ­September – will be greeted by a full-scale model of the Tempest sixth-­generation fighter.

Updates can be expected around the associated Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) between Italy, Japan and the UK, which is progressing towards ­delivering an operational capability from 2035.

Giandomenico Taricco, director commercial & corporate for the GCAP International ­Government ­Organisation (GIGO) – the body tasked with managing the programme – recently provided an update.

“GCAP is moving from a three-nation discussion to a single programme,” he says.

The trinational GIGO, and an industrial joint venture named Edgewing formed by BAE, Japan Aircraft Industrial Enhancement (including Mitsubishi Heavy Industries), and Leonardo, were formally established at a site in Reading, Berkshire in early July.

Separately, BAE has outlined its progress in ­developing a supersonic flying demonstrator. While this is a UK-only activity, it also will help to develop skills and de-risk technologies for the future Tempest platform.

Having grown in size by approximately 20% since its previous iteration, the biennial DSEI show is likely to see attendance by around 50,000 visitors. ­Almost 1,600 companies will be exhibiting, with the show’s organiser expecting to host in the region of 37 ­international pavilions.

The event also is due to include a first public ­address by the RAF’s new chief of the air staff, Air Chief Marshal Harv Smyth. His direct predecessor, Air Chief Marshal Sir Rich Knighton, meanwhile, is starting his new role as Chief of the Defence Staff.